Discharge to LTACs
Disposition to LTACs Daily at 07:00
Potential use: early rehabilitation and care-transition planning. We prioritize performance over time and local population context. Disposition reflects care pathways as well as patient needs; read event rates alongside performance.
Retrospective benchmark results do not establish benefit in clinical care.
Models
External AUROC is the mean AUROC across eligible external sites, weighted by test hospitalizations. MIMIC-CLIF remains a public reference. Full-report selections do not change this summary.
Not shown: Health System 4 was excluded from the LTAC analysis because differences in postacute care pathways limited outcome ascertainment.
Not shown: Health System 7 has no reported discrimination estimate for this task.
Task definition and ranking methods
Endpoint: discharge disposition to a long-term acute care hospital (LTAC). Prediction time: daily at 07:00 during the first ICU stay.
icu_daily_ltachlabel_ltachThe external summary weights each eligible site by test hospitalizations, never daily prediction rows. Scores and intervals in Summary use two decimals; ordering uses the available source precision before display rounding. Full report retains more precision. Formal ranks are pending verification of identical task versions, evaluation protocols, eligible site sets and per-site test partitions across submissions. A change requires a new ranking version and reference-model reevaluation. Exact ties must share a rank once comparability is verified. The current exports do not establish all these conditions. Only per-site confidence intervals are shown in Summary; averaging site confidence limits does not establish an interval for the ranking score.
The manuscript LTAC analysis excludes Health Systems 4, 7 and 9 for local practice and Health System 5 for a 0.6% test-hospitalization event rate. Eligibility requires an event rate greater than 1%. Previously published estimates outside this analysis remain inspectable and are labelled in Summary.
Summary policy: flair-manuscript-2026-10-18. A missing required external estimate leaves the overall summary unavailable; remaining site reports stay accessible.
Each site's own cell is the pooled-across-landmarks AUROC it published, with a stay-level bootstrap interval computed at the site and not re-derived here. Full report retains its landmark analysis, operating point and cohort tables.
Which result each site publishes: the site a model was trained on publishes its local arm; every other site publishes external validation. A site's own-data result is never presented as external validation.
Intervals: 95% percentile-bootstrap intervals (500 replicates specified) resample hospitalizations at each site. They are not adjusted for multiplicity across tasks, sites, or thresholds, no formal hypothesis tests are performed, and they should not be used to infer statistically significant differences between sites.
Validation tags: external validation means a model is evaluated on participating external site data. Local validation means the model is evaluated on the held-out test split of the site it was trained on.
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